Long-term trends in ice dynamics using a simple lake ice model - a mediator of climate change impacts on lake eco-hydrodynamics

Long term trends and variability in lake ice dynamics are related to changes in climate conditions. The timing of ice on and off dates and ice cover duration in lakes and reservoirs will modulate the impact of regional weather conditions on lake thermal structure and mixing, since heat and momentum transfer into the water column is greatly reduced by the presence of ice cover. Changes in the duration and timing of ice cover are well documented effects of climate change that are expected to continue into the future. Long-term simulations of ice conditions/duration are essential to understand the mechanics through which ice cover mediates the effects of climate on lake thermal structure and mixing, and how changing ice cover may ultimately influence phytoplankton succession and trophic status of a lake. In the present study, a simple one dimensional model that predicts the onset, loss and duration of ice cover is developed and will be applied to several lakes and reservoirs around the globe. The model is driven by daily or hourly air temperature and wind speed as these are the most important factors influencing ice breakup and formation. Even though this simple model does not make detailed calculations of the ice cover energy budget, ice-on and off days are well reproduced. [We are calling for participation and data contribution to this project as of February-March 2013. Please feel free to contact Nihar Samal (NSamal@dep.nyc.gov) if you are interested in collaborating.]